It Was the Worst of Times: The Week 10 Picks
- Abram Sexson and Panayiotis Mamalis
- Nov 7
- 2 min read
When cousin Georgia got her fingers caught in the barn door and they had to be amputated it was the last incident in the year from hell. Her boyfriend, Mitso, dumped her after falling in love with her best friend. Her parents separated, the family home went under foreclosure, and she failed geometry.
But Georgia didn’t let her circumstances get her down. She stayed strong, overcame the loss of her fingers, and became festival queen at the town’s panigiri that summer. Her dad got a new job at the brewery, saved the home and the marriage.
In football, some teams can overcome the season from hell under the right circumstances. The 49ers have managed to overcome the loss of the starting QB, receiver core, tight end, and the best middle linebacker in the league among others. They are 6-3 largely due to coaching and front office infrastructure.
The Ravens look to be on their way to a big comeback season after losing their quarterback and much of the starting defense to injury during the first half of the season. They are 3-5, but with a cupcake schedule ahead of them, coaching and organizational stability has the oddsmakers making them betting favorites to win their division (-140).
Teams like Washington and Cincinnati look like they can't overcome the injuries to their teams. The starting quarterbacks will miss most of the season, middling defenses have been worse than expected, and, as a result, the fan bases are in a really dark place. But, they have something that teams like the Jets and Browns don't have and that is a cornerstone piece. Those teams have franchise quarterbacks.
A bona fide franchise quarterback can keep your team afloat the way Patrick Mahomes has this season while his receivers were out. Joe Burrow has established himself in the upper tier of quarterbacks in the league. Jayden Daniels has regressed this year after a phenomenal rookie season. His accuracy was down, he made bad decisions on zone read options, and has not been willing to pull the trigger the few times the receivers were open.
Time will tell if he has what it takes to be counted as one of the league's elite, but bringing him back to this team, this season is not advisable. Betting on Washington the rest of the season seems like a bad bet as well. Losing a couple fingers is tough, but if the core is strong, you can survive the body blows. Washington looks like a team that will bounce back next season, provided a regression to the mean in regards to bad injury luck.
Take the Lions (-8.5) to beat up on a demoralized Commanders team that can't execute on defense. We also like the Jaguars (-1.5), beating up on the Texans without C.J. Stroud and their anemic offense. Take the Ravens at (-3.5); Lamar Jackson is 18-6 ATS when playing the NFC. Finally, take Philly coming off the bye and getting (+2.5) against the bipolar Packers.
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