Señor Snappy
Sep 19, 202212 min
Final Score: Chargers 24 - Chiefs 27.
The Chargers were the Chiefs' equals in skill and determination, but could not hold on to a lead at the end.
The contest ended in a typical Chiefs victory: the home team came out slow, but hung around long enough to and turn up the heat with a couple of big plays in critical moments down the stretch.
"Energy management" is the game-within-the-game, just ask Conor McGregor.
Prediction game Scoring: lowest points wins
BOLT DAD
Score prediction: Chargers 35 - Chiefs 21
Game Prediction Record: 1-1
Delta Score: Chargers 11, Opponents 6; Game Score Delta: 17
Season Points: 30
It was a very tough watch and not what I predicted, but the more I reflect on it: our Chargers, and specifically Herbert, showed true grit that can't be faked.
I am proud of our team. I truly believe we are playoff bound as we became a team on Thursday night.
The rest of the NFL better watch out because we comin'.
Nick Buck
Score prediction: Chargers 23 - Chiefs 29
Game Prediction Record: 2-0
Delta Score: Chargers 1, Opponents 2; Game Score Delta: 3
Season Points: 5
The clearest distinction between these two teams is the grit: while the Chiefs required two referee interventions to recall what were picks by Amazon Prime Poster-Boy Mahomes, the only one against Herbert proved the final dagger.
Do bear in mind this required a full absence of Keenan Allen, Donald Parham Jr, a 2nd half absence of Corey Linsley and Trey Pipkins and a hurried call after Gerald Everett tried removing himself from the field as he was visibly exhausted. The rushed playcalling was to blame here as Everett did not have time to complete his route before he was beaten to it.
But a rib injury for Justin Herbert after landing on a defender's helmet still was not enough to keep Herbert off the field. He played the rest of the game, through the visible pain and still threw a touchdown. If anyone was ever in doubt about Herbert's ability to lead, or his mental fortitude, they need be no longer.
This will feel like one stolen from the Bolts. But we're 1 and 1 with a whole season yet ahead of us.
With ten days until we face the Jags, let's hope the injuries suffered tonight aren't anything long-lasting. The grittier team lost. The grittier team will prevail.
John Kegley
Score prediction: Chargers 20 - Chiefs 24
Game Prediction Record: 2-0
Delta Score: Chargers 4, Opponents 3; Game Score Delta: 7
Season Points: 30
Injuries to the offensive line and no Keenan Allen were just a few factors that led to the Chargers offense slowing down.
After another strong start for the Charger offense, injuries to Corey Linsley and Trey Pipkins allowed the Chiefs to get more pressure on Herbert and consequently slow the offense.
I think the critical factor in the loss was the missed interceptions: the Chargers had multiple interceptions in their hands and dropped them. Mahomes, in an interview after the game, said he was fortunate to have the interceptions dropped (ED: or called back).
The Chiefs, on the other hand, handled their most important interception opportunity and it was the game changer: a 99-yard pick six which changed the momentum of the game. The Chargers were only yards away from a score, only to have it flipped in the blink of an eye to a Chiefs touchdown. Gerald Everett being tired and asking for a sub might be the main focus of the pick six. If Everett gets his sub, does the interception happen?
The Chargers in the end lost a game that they were dominating and winning by beating themselves which we all call "Chargering."
Señor Snappy
Score prediction: Chargers 28 - Chiefs 27
Game Prediction Record: 0-2
Delta Score: Chargers 4, Opponents 0; Game Score Delta: 4
Season Points: 12
I dreaded this game all week. I had premonitions and dreams which left me feeling this game would be doomed by tragedy.
Going away from my gut intuition, I predicted a victory based on "past success" -- never a reliable forecast of future performance.
What did I predict, and how did it turn out?
This team will handle the Arrowhead experience. Check.
Crazy heroism. Check. See below for details.
Role players will decide the outcome. Check--yet again, the Chargers acquired a promising pass-catching tight end in Gerald Everett. Everett had some phenomenal plays throughout the game, but he will always be remembered for his sloppy route in the end zone which allowed a different role player--rookie 7th round pick Jaylen Watson--to decide the outcome in picking off Justin Herbert's pass on the way to a touchdown. Everett's lack of effort on the play would be laughable, if it hadn't been so catastrophic. "Fatigue makes cowards of us all" as they say.
Asante Samuel, Jr. will get targeted by Mahomes out of spite, who will learn the hard way not to try it again. Check, sort of. Mahomes did not hesitate to test cornerback Samuel all night, and "Zont" had several near-interceptions as a result. Were Samuel's opportunities erased by bad refereeing or failure of the player to finish? What seems clear: the Chargers hope Mahomes did not learn his lesson and will try Asante Samuel, Jr. just as often when next they meet. The result will likely be different.
Kyle Van Noy will stop Kelce on crucial 3rd downs. It wasn't Van Noy who stopped Kelce: the linebacker missed an interception late in the game--one that hit him in the hands--which would have given the Chargers a lift at a critical moment. This dropped INT happened just after Herbert got injured and the offense had stalled. Kelce, on the other hand, had some success in the game, but was not the most important factor. Kelce will more be remembered as the recipient of a beautiful solo bodyslam by the comparatively diminutive Derwin James, Jr.--a tackle which caused a fumble (ruled dead because that was the Chargers luck that night) and saved a touchdown.
The Chiefs will try to exploit Nasir Adderly. The Chiefs' touchdown pass over the outstretched arms of J.C. Jackson wouldn't even have been thrown according to Coach Staley (as stated in a post-game press conference) had Adderly read the play correctly and had been in position. That said, Mahomes and the Chiefs did not have a memorable night passing the ball, so Adderly wasn't a critical weakness that could be picked on.
Mike Davis will have to have one of his best games. Nope.
Khalil is the Chargers' X-factor, and he will be called on to get the Bolts' defense working together. Perhaps, but the Chargers pass rush seemed to fade as the game wore on. The whole defense mostly played excellent all night, with a few gut-wrenching exceptions noted below.
What I did not predict:
I could not predict the painful lesson in game and personnel management that resulted in a decisive pick-six thrown by quarterback Justin Herbert. That goal line interception swung the game to the Chiefs favor and they subsequently did what they do best: hold on to win the game.
The lesson to be learned from that catastrophic interception is one of attention: players' body language, words and other signals they send are crucially important. Prior to that fateful play, Everett tapped his helmet, signaling that he wished to come out of the game. The Chargers were in a "hurry-up" offense, attempting to take advantage of favorable matchups in the goal-to-go situation following a long chunk play--importantly, a long pass to Everett which involved a flat out sprint on his part. Everett had no intention of executing on that play, but the Chargers, went for the jugular with a dull blade: they did not listen to or observe their players.
In post-game interviews, Everett offered technical reasons (excuses, really) which suggested it was all a miscommunication, which presumably could be resolved with more playing time on the team. In hindsight, the decision to play hurry-up on that down--ignoring Everett's body language AND signals--and forcing him in to the decisive action of the play was tone deaf.
It is not yet clear who made the decision to go no-huddle on the play, but Herbert must take the blame for throwing to Everett who was covered. If the Chargers were not so single-mindedly aggressive in that situation, it is likely that they score in the series and can run out the clock on the remaining series. Herbert is likely never injured in that scenario.
The Chargers' lack of awareness on the play is reminiscent of their decision to call time-out in the waning seconds of the week 18 overtime contest in Las Vegas the prior season. That decision, too, led to a loss. Aggression without proper restraint. Hopefully, the Chargers prove sufficiently self-aware to recognize this tendency and install some checks and workarounds to avoid these critical errors in judgement which have cost them so dearly.
As for the "hurry up," Chargers fans now realize why NFL teams use no-huddle offenses sparingly: for the strategy to work, the players on the field must have the stamina in the moment to execute it. The NFL favors larger men who need more recovery time between sprints. Sometimes, a matchup advantage isn't worth the risk of your own players fatigue.
On the other hand, forcing a mismatch by preventing defensive substitution to a goal line package was a tactically sound idea. The Chargers should have run the ball in that situation. They had size on the play, because the Chiefs had a coverage unit in. It was a good idea which was strategically mismanaged. The result was painful enough that I suspect everyone who reps the Bolt will be forever vigilant against the team making this sort of error again.
The Watson interception should be an object lesson on the level of the infamous McCree fumble. Ever since McCree intercepted Tom Brady in the 2007 playoffs--only to fumble it away during the runback--what do fans think (or scream) first when their defense catches an interception? "Just go down!" From now on, whenever the Chargers offense is in hurry-up, fans will be looking for players which look fatigued. Perhaps "run the ball" will be their new "just go down!"
For all the questionable refereeing, game management, injuries, missed tackles and missed interception opportunities: the play that concerns me most was a 3-and-out series that occurred with 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Chargers needed to hold a narrow 3 point lead which was starting to look shaky. The Chargers started that drive on their own 9 yard line, and ran THREE STRAIGHT PASS PLAYS, 2 of which were play action. Their offensive line play looked inept on this critical drive: the Chiefs pass rush was barely slowed in the series. It was as though they were unblocked. Herbert was nearly sacked for a Safety and was touched on 2 consecutive snaps.
The Chiefs, for their part, didn't seem to care that the playcalling was unorthodox for this "backed up to our own goal line" situation: they just blew up every play. Of the many lessons the Bolts can take from this game, hopefully they don't miss this one: their offensive strategy on that series was mistaken, and, more importantly, they should never allow three straight hits to this quarterback ever again.
The Chargers Special Teams were great. Lost in all the heat about refereeing and Herbert's injury: the Chargers special teams played very well. Kansas City registered ZERO kick returns, and a total of 6 yards on punts. It's usually a good thing if you aren't talking about special teams, and the Chargers' excelled. Besides the great kick and punt coverage, PK Dustin Hopkins made his only FG try of the night and made all his extra point kicks--which Chargers fans know is no certain thing. Kudos to the whole unit.
The Chargers defense was in a position to swing the momentum back from the Chiefs after the Herbert injury, but failed on two critical downs:
The dropped INT by Van Noy, and even more maddeningly,
A huge run off-tackle by the Chiefs which put them in field goal range which proved to be the winning difference in the game. Derwin James was flagged for a questionable face mask penalty on the play, adding 15 yards and making the FG a chip shot. The Chargers defense should not have given up the run at all. I was told we weren't going to allow this sort of play with our new defense. Khalil Mack was supposed to show us how hungry he was instead.
Dominic M.
Score prediction: Chargers 22 - Chiefs 34
Game Prediction Record: 2-0
Delta Score: Chargers 2, Opponents 7; Game Score Delta: 8
Season Points: 13
Will Clapp. Storm Norton. In a game decided by inches and interventions the Chargers were undone when the offensive line lost center Corey Linsley and tackle Trey Pipkins to injuries in the second half.
The depth of the line was tested as Clapp and Norton tried to replace them. Justin Herbert's ribs paid the price.
Though Herbert only missed one play due to the injury, the impact of the defensive end Mike Danna's blow was felt for the remainder of the game. The question is: Will it be felt throughout the remainder of the season?
Herbert was set to receive an X-ray after the game. He did not speak to the media.
The revamped Los Angeles defense held Andy Reid's juggernaut offense in check for most of the evening. Designer pressure packages flustered Patrick Mahomes for stretches of the game and he acquiesced by throwing the ball to the lightning bolts a handful of times.
The Chargers hauled in three for interceptions only for the officiating crew to take them away. The first interception was negated because of a defensive holding call on Bryce Callahan that replays revealed was actually Chiefs receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling pinning the defender with his arm to push him off.
"The one you know he clubs Bryce Callahan, and it's and obvious offensive pass interference at the minimum, and we get the interception." Coach Brandon Staley said. "That is as tough as it gets because we were in perfect coverage. We were perfectly defended. So that's a tough one."
Another interception by Asante Samuel Jr. was reversed after a replay review. Given the reprieve, the Chiefs scored a touchdown on that drive.
Four days removed from scoring 44 points while racking up 488 yards and 33 first downs against the Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City was held to 20 points, 319 total yards and 15 first downs. Brandon Staley felt so confident in his defense that he punted from midfield on 4th and short. Twice!
"I just wanted to give the defense a chance to compete." Staley said.
Tied at 17 in the fourth quarter, the game swung on a miscommunication between Herbert and tight end Gerald Everett on the Chief's goal line. The Chargers were on the cusp of scoring behind consecutive passes to Everett for 7 and 26 yards. Cameras caught Everett signaling to the sideline for a substitution.
The Chargers rushed to the line hoping to keep the Chiefs on their heels. Everett stayed in the game.
Whether he was out of breath, or nursing an injured ankle, he does not box out the defensive back like Herbert expected him to. Cornerback Jalen Watson jumped the route and was off to the races. 99 yards later, in the opposite end zone, it was the Arrowhead crowd that would need to catch their breath.
When he was asked what he saw on the interception return, running back Austin Ekeler said that he was busy blocking.
That's what is going to be seen as the big play of the game, but we had a couple of times where we went three-and-out. We can't do that. We can't do that. - Austin Ekeler
Señora Snappy
Score prediction: Chargers 28 - Chiefs 21
Game Prediction Record: 1-1
Delta Score: Chargers 4, Opponents 6; Game Score Delta: 10
Season Points: 22
Some thoughts on Week 2:
The Chiefs offensive line had an answer for the Bosa & Mack rushes & maneuvers. They held ground, allowing Mahomes anywhere from 5-7 seconds of protection within the pocket.
Chargers offensive line suffered from the loss of C Linsley and RT Pipkins. This duo has shown they can effectively protect our QB. Replacing with Storm Norton resulted in familiar problems of being pushed around while the protection of Herbert evaporated like a desert storm.
Defensive Line One of my favorite plays was when Joey Bosa lined up on the edge with Derwin James to back up the pursuit of Mahomes.
You all: Derwin James picked up Travis Kelce and body slammed him into the ground. I cannot wait to see this happen again with a fumble on top of it.
The Chargers handled the atmosphere at Arrowhead exceptionally well.
The future of the Chargers, even with injury adversity, looks bright.
Aaron Vrabel
Score prediction: Chargers 31 - Chiefs 27
Game Prediction Record: 1-1
Delta Score: Chargers 7, Opponents 0; Game Score Delta: 7
Season Points: 16
I did not expect to sweep the Chiefs but I hate the feeling of being robbed by bad refereeing. National media and general NFL fans across social media seem to have the same sentiment about last night's game. There are fifteen more games to go in this season. Staley's new found conservatism is concerning but not detrimental, yet.
My biggest concern after watching this game is the long term prognosis of Justin Herbert. If Herbert comes out of this without any issues that will last all season, this game will be a small blip on our long season.
Keep your heads up Chargers fans. Chargers defense is real and the way Staley is disguising coverages is what we expected to see last seasons before injuries took over.
I would like to hear from anyone in the comments: Should the Chargers rest Herbert the next two weeks and let our defense carry us, or put him back out there to give ourselves the best chance to win but potentially hurting him more?
After week two, the prediction results are as follows:
Top 3 Closest Score Predictions:
Nick Buck did it again, winning the prediction game twice in a row. He predicted the game outcome correctly, the Chargers' final score within 1 point and overestimated the opponents' score by only 2 points. Uncanny.
Señor Snappy got the winner wrong for the 2nd straight week, but was 2nd closest in points prediction. He overestimated the Chargers score by 4, and nailed the opponents score prediction.
Tie, Aaron Vrabel and John Kegley. John underestimated the Chargers by 4 points and the opponents by a mere field goal. Aaron overestimated the Chargers by a touchdown and hit a bullseye predicting the Chiefs final score.
Season Standings, POINTS:
Nick Buck - 5 points
Señor Snappy - 12 points
Dominic M - 13 points
Aaron Vrabel - 16 points
Senora Snappy - 22 points
(T) John Kegley - 30 points
(T) Bolt Dad - 30 points
Win/Loss Record:
2-0 Club: Nick Buck, Dominic M, John Kegley
1-1 Club: Senora Snappy, Aaron Vrabel and Bolt Dad.
Check back in a few days for our predictions for Week 3 vs. the Jaguars!
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